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  1. Weather effects

    Posted May 29, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

    Weather effects, including effects of Arctic warming

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    • Question construction issues (sea-level rise, venture capital)

      Posted May 29, 2014 by Daniel Kirk-Davidoff:

      The questions not so well constructed in this round. For example, mean sea level rose by more than 10 mm in the year 2011 (after falling in 2010)- what you really meant was "when will the 20 year running mean of sea level rise rate first exceed 3 mm/year" or something like that. For the "venture capital" question, it's hard to know whether we're supposed to imagine that "venture capital" means the "investor" is looking for return on investment, or just trying to buy the largest over-all reduction of carbon for the $200…

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      • Cancel or clarify question on power plant emissions

        There is a major problem with question #2, spring 2013: what percent of global carbon emissions come from coal fired power plants.
        Currently approx. 40% of carbon comes from electricity generation, and 40% of electricity comes from power plants =>16%. But the answer choices suggest that the expected answer is 40%. The question needs to be clarified: relative to what % current value?? Else we are left guessing what the question means.

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        • Poorly worded question (Q2 Poll / Question #4)

          Posted April 24, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

          Poorly worded questions. For example, there are three separate grounds for possibly disagreeing with the first quote from Hansen et al. and no way to distinguish between them in the responses.

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          • Question 1 (sea level rise) is silly, as currently worded

            Posted April 23, 2014 by Kevin Trenberth:

            Sea level rose 18 mm from Jan 2011 to Jan 2013, so 9 mm/year (after a
            huge dip from water dumped on land). The issue is that ENSO and related variability can easily make big changes from one year to another. So one needs to average over say 10 years.

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            • Does "build low-emission products" include different energy sources?

              Posted on April 22, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

              The formulation "build low-emission products (to obsolete high-emission ones)" is very vague - are you talking about different energy sources, or about optimizing products to minimize energy use?

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              • 5mm sea level rise already happened?

                Posted April 23, 2014 by Bryan Killett:

                I said sea level would rise by more than 5mm in a single year before 2020 because that's already happened: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/ Notice that from 2011 to 2013 sea level rose by nearly 20mm, or about 10mm/year. Granted, this was a short term event, because of the La Nina so strong the oceans fell (h/t Carmen Boening). So the error bars on this short trend would be quite large. Perhaps a better question would have been: How long until the 20 year average of sealevel rise is over 5mm/year?

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                • Sea level rise question should be re-framed

                  Posted April 17, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

                  a sea level rise of 5mm a year integrated over the rest of the century will not reach the > 1m range IPCC estimates . the question should be in what year do you expect to see one centimeter of sea level rise?

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                  • Idea for more general version of investment question

                    Posted April 16, 2014 by Brian Morsony:

                    A more general version of the investment question might be interesting. Something along the lines of "Given $200 billion to address climate change, would you recommendation be to invest in: A) Preventing climate change (e.g. though reducing fossil fuel use, developing alternative energy sources, retiring coal power plants, etc.) B) Geo-engineering (e.g. changing forest cover, direct removal of CO2, changing the Earth's albedo, etc.) C) Adapting to climate change (e.g. building sea walls, irrigation, flood prevention, disaster relief, resettlement, etc.)

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                    • Nuclear power image problem is formidable

                      Posted April 14, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

                      The problem with nuclear power is the formidable image problem this industry has, and which they have shown incompetent at addressing. Scaling up renewables is a major logistic and economic (not: technological) challenge, but may in the final analysis be an easier one as it doesn't involve human nature ;-)

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                      • Question on sea level rise like asking about the weather

                        Posted April 14, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

                        Your question on 5mm sea level rise is a bad one. It is like asking someone to predict what year the Thames river will flood next. It is weather, not climate. But I answered it.

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                        • Some questions hard to answer due to limited options

                          Posted April 14, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

                          Some questions are hard to answer because of the limited options that are given. For example, I would say that fossil fuel emissions from now to 2020 will actually be very close to 40% of the total - so do I say below or above? My answer is the more hopeful one, that they will start to come down quite soon now, after having gone up above 40% for the last few years.

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                          • Fukushima nuclear plant and efforts to mitigate anthropogenic climate change

                            Posted April 14, 2014 by Ray Weiss:

                            The saddest thing to affect efforts to mitigate anthropogenic climate change in the past decade was the failure of engineers to place the emergency generators at the Fukushima nuclear power station at a high enough elevation to avoid flooding during a tsunami. A similar error was made in connection with flooding of generators due to Hurricane Sandy at a New York University hospital, but nobody is now calling for the closure of hospitals as a result.

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                            • Nuclear question too imprecise

                              Posted April 14, 2014 by an Anonymous Participant:

                              I did not answer to some of your questions which were imprecise : example the last one [Q2-2014: Question 5]. Climate stabilisation may be at +5 or +10°C without nuclear power in a carbon energy intensive world! You did not consider at what level.

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                              • Questions about nuclear power are misleading

                                Posted April 14, 2014 by Donald Rapp:

                                The questions about nuclear power are misleading. They imply that there *IS* a way to stabilize CO2 concentration and nuclear power is part of the answer. The real question is whether humanity can get through the 20th century providing power to the people of the world, all things considered (technical, political, financial, ...) without CO2 rising to at least 600 ppm?

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                                • Climate stabilization questions

                                  Posted April 14, 2014 by Gösta Walin:

                                  Is there a need to stabilize climate? Is it possible to stabilize climate? What are the risks if you try to stabilize climate?

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                                  • Little doubt that nuclear power must be considered

                                    Posted April 14, 2014 by Harry McCaughey:

                                    Given the known severity of the climate change problem plus the IPCC report issued yesterday in Berlin, there is little doubt that nuclear power must be considered in the future energy mix. To take any non-polluting and carbon-free source off the table is totally irresponsible. It is true that there remains an issue with the safe disposal and reprocessing of hazardous nuclear waste and that must be addressed urgently. As well, governments must stop taking all risk out of nuclear power production by assuming and absolving the producers from any harm in the…

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                                    • Some studies project a rise of 4 C by 2050 What is the first decade in which you expect to see a full degree of temperature rise?"

                                      Some studies project a rise of 4 C by 2050, which would require an average annual increase of .11 degrees C a year, or 1.1 C a decade from 2014 to 2050,

                                      In what decade do you expect to see temperatures rise one whole degree ?

                                      (a) Before 2020
                                      (b) 2020 - 2030
                                      (c) 2030 - 2040
                                      (d) 2040 - 2050
                                      (e) some 10 year interval between 2050 & 2100
                                      (f) Not in my lifetime

                                      3 votes
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                                        1 comment  ·  Pre-Test  ·  Admin →
                                      • When will sea level rise by one centimeter or more within a single year?

                                        FULL QUESTION:
                                        When will sea level rise by one centimeter or more within a single year?

                                        ANSWER OPTIONS:
                                        Before 2015
                                        2015-2020
                                        2021-2025
                                        After 2025

                                        Please comment or vote on the usefulness of this question. Thanks.

                                        5 votes
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                                          under review  ·  4 comments  ·  Pre-Test  ·  Admin →
                                        • How much will emissions from thawing permafrost warm the climate by end of this century?

                                          FULL QUESTION:
                                          How much will emissions from thawing permafrost warm the climate by end of this century?

                                          ANSWER OPTIONS:
                                          Less than 1 °C
                                          More than 1 ° C but less 2 ° C
                                          More than 2 ° C but less than 3 ° C
                                          More than 3 ° C

                                          Please comment or vote on the usefulness of this question. Thanks.

                                          3 votes
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                                            under review  ·  4 comments  ·  Pre-Test  ·  Admin →
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