I propose ...

How much will emissions from thawing permafrost warm the climate by end of this century?

FULL QUESTION:
How much will emissions from thawing permafrost warm the climate by end of this century?

ANSWER OPTIONS:
Less than 1 °C
More than 1 ° C but less 2 ° C
More than 2 ° C but less than 3 ° C
More than 3 ° C

Please comment or vote on the usefulness of this question. Thanks.

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    moderatorAdminmoderator (Admin, visionprize) shared this idea  ·   ·  Admin →

    4 comments

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      • moderatorAdminmoderator (Admin, visionprize) commented  · 

        Posted March 25, 2014 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

        I would also include both transient and climate equilibrium time scales as I think many scientists might agree that the carbon release is likely very slow, but it is much less clear what they think could become its significance on centuries/millennia time scales.

      • Alastair McDonaldAlastair McDonald commented  · 

        I don't think we will ever know the answer to this question.

      • Anonymous commented  · 

        Good question and an important feedback to address.

      • Anonymous commented  · 

        This is an important question. Under a scenario of widespread (i.e., circumpolar) permafrost thawing, the rapid release of huge amounts of methane and CO2 from decomposing organic material currently bound up in the permafrost, could be the trigger that generates an over-shooting of a 2 ° C increase in global average temperature and the establishment of a new climatic equilibrium with a global average temperature well in excess of 3 ° C.

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