Propose questions for next Vision Prize poll

Please fill in the blank:

How likely is the following statement to be true? ________________________

Where the possible answers are: A) Very unlikely (<10%); B) Unlikely (<33%); C) About as likely as not (33-66%); D) Likely (>66%); E) Very likely (>90%).

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  1. Long range research in nuclear power generation is an urgent priority.

    For many countries nuclear power is the only practical means of power
    generation on the scale needed for modern industry aside from the use of fossil fuels. More research is needed to develope safe ways to deploy
    this technology safely throughout the globe.

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    • Ambiguities make answering some questions hard

      Posted October 30, 2014 by Michael MacCracken:

      A number of the questions were not well defined or lacked indications of time period being considered or spatial region being considered, etc. For example, the first question asked about global average temperature as an indicator of the "health" of the planet--just what are we to take that to mean? Is it about the degree of climate change, the impacts on the environment, the health of people, the overall policy set of nations with respect to the environment, the international security situation, etc.? On the question on setting a concentration goal and specific…

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      • 1 vote
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        • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? Main danger is from abrupt climate change, which is impossible to guage

          Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

          The first question was confusing because it was a double negative. The main danger is from an abrupt climate change, which will come by definition without warning. Therefore it is impossible to gauge the health of the climate!

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          • Keep Vision Prize independent

            Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

            I realize that now the Vision Prize collaborates with IOP and ERL, but the focus of recent questions on specific ERL papers (even if relevant) makes me wonder how independent the Vision Prize still is. Until now, I found it a refreshing venue for climate change science and policy polling among experts. I hope it stays that way.

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            • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, at least GMT is simple, observable and relevant to where people are living

              Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

              The problem is not with the global mean temp (at meteo level) as a metric for the impact of global warming. It is known to be not very good, but none of the others is any much better: e.g., ocean heat content is not actually connected strongly with climatic impacts on the biosphere. And neither it nor GMT says anything re: ocean acidification. The whole argument in the article has the implicit premise that our failure to do something about global warming is to be blamed on scientists' failure to communicate…

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              • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, very important not to downgrade limit agreed in Copenhagen

                Posted October 28, 2014 by Harry McCaughey:

                It is very important to not downgrade the importance of the 2 degree C limit agreed to in Copenhagen. Whereas there are a variety of other measures which are indicative of dangerous tipping points, the 2 degree C limit has more broad recognition to the vast majority of the public, and it is absolutely crucial that the world's public be on side with the needed changes in fossil fuel use.

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                • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? Picking one indicator or other will not get us away from the complexities

                  Posted October 28, 2014 by Raghu Murtugudde:

                  Picking one indicator or the other will not get us away from the complexities of the issues. Both climate scientists and the politicians need to stay on the task till the needle moves on the behavioral changes needed in all - including, or especially those who like to march in New York City or wherever else expecting someone else to solve the problem. My views. http://www.livescience.com/48452-climate-fixes-need-realistic-compromises.html

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                  • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, better than the alternatives

                    Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

                    Like Democracy, use of avg. global temperature to measure climate change is better than the alternatives

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                    • "Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health."

                      Prior version: "A set of indicators is needed to gauge human stresses on the climate that can be coupled to local information on what people care most about."

                      Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                      10 votes
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                      • 7 votes
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                        • 2 votes
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                          • The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system.

                            The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system, which is stoking sea-level rise and other climate impacts.

                            Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                            7 votes
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                            • Ocean heat content is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

                              Reframed: Ocean heat content is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

                              Original (from Victor et.al.): Ocean heat content is a better proxy for long-term risk to future generations and planetary-scale ecology than average global temperature.

                              Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                              10 votes
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                              • Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs is a better indicator of climate change risk than average global temperature.

                                Full Question: Concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (or the change in radiative forcing caused by those gases) is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

                                Original (from Victor et.al.): Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs (or the change in radiative forcing caused by those gases) is the best indicator of climate-change risk

                                Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                                7 votes
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                                • The goal of stopping global warming at 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is effectively unachievable.

                                  Source: Victor, D. G. Global Warming Gridlock: Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011). http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018#/b4

                                  3 votes
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                                  • Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health.

                                    Ditch the 2 C warming goal, say David G Victor and Charles F. Kennel in NATURE Vol 514 pp 30-3. Track a range of vital signs instead. http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                                    3 votes
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                                    • Getting global agreement at UNFCCC's Conference in Paris 2015 to combat current and future climate change is not essential.

                                      Currently there is a heightened interest in climate change in the general public. The recent marches in a number of cities around the world confirmed this fact. However, our political class is still woefully inadequate in responding to the evolving crisis, and, in the US in particular, the heavy emphasis on electing once more an intransigent congress, including the senate, is very discouraging. Canada continues as a standout climate denier at the federal level.

                                      1 vote
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                                      • Primary school education is not adequately preparing a generation to face the climate change consequences of the coming decades.

                                        Following the question concerning higher education, science education in primary school should also be addressed.

                                        3 votes
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                                        • 4 votes
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