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  1. Suggested questions for future polls

    Posted May 18, 2013 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

    Predicted CO2 ppm in 2100 Predicted radiative forcing relative to pre-industrial in 2100 Year of first ice-free Arctic summer

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    • Suggested questions: Greenland ice sheet

      Posted May 15, 2013 by Alistair McDonald:

      When do you think that the arctic sea ice will disappear? Will its disappearance affect the rate of melting of the Greenland ice sheet? How long will it take for the Greenland ice sheet to melt away? What affect will the disappearance of the Arctic sea ice have on the climate of the USA? What affect will the melting of the Arctic sea ice have on the climate of Europe? If the Greenland ice sheet melts away what will be the cost to the USA due to sea level rise? If the Greenland…

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      • Suggested questions: ecological effects of global climate change

        Posted March 9, 2013 by Ian Colquhoun:

        I think there is a lot of room for future poll questions that deal with the ecological effects of global climate change -- e.g.: the effects of climatic warming on higher altitude ecosystems; the effects of climatic warming on fresh water resources; the effects of projected sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems (e.g., mangroves) and/or coastal human settlements; the effects of ocean acidification on marine fisheries; the potential impact of increased forest fire risk due to global climatic change; the risks associated with increased frequency and severity of tropical cyclonic storms; etc., etc.

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          Great suggestions, thanks! We would welcome, from you and/or others, proposed wording for five to ten poll questions, including multiple-choice answer options, on these topics.

        • Transient climate response better parameter than climate sensitivity for projecting temperatures?

          Posted March 5, 2013 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

          Is climate sensitivity or transient climate response the better parameter to use in projecting 21st century temperatures? What do you think is the most likely value for transient climate response? What do you think is the upper bound for transient climate response? What do you think is the lower bound for transient climate response?

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          • Question bias on global warming

            Posted March 5, 2013 by Anonymous Participant:

            There is a severe bias in your selection of question relative to what is known about warming since the last Glacial Epoch - when most of the Polar regions were under huge Glaciers - then melted slowly, and eventually allowed settlements, and human development = population growth - until the Maunder Minimum and Little Ice age brought back the Mess = loss of human options and life. Warming has always been best for Human Health and Welfare - and Cooling has Killed far more people than almost any Warm Events -

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            • Ideas for future polls

              Posted March 4, 2013 by Laurent Labeyrie:

              What actions individuals would accept to moderate global warming, what percent would.... actions on price of carbon energy, on incentive for new technology, on reglementation for house insulation, public transport... ideas on past climate changes : role of solar variability, ocean changes (variability of the Gulf Stream), melting of ice caps...

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              • Suggested wording for questions on global warming effects

                Posted February 23, 2013 by LuAnne Thompson:

                For the questions of "how much did GW contribute to ..." A better wording would be "How much more likely did GW make X event?"

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                • Hurricane Sandy

                  Posted February 17, 2013 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

                  Questions on Hurricane Sandy would be very interesting!

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                  • Letting us tell you what our expertise level is for specific questions

                    For some of the questions I am quite knowledgeable. For others, I have almost no expertise. There should be a way to tell you I have no expertise relevant to this question.

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                    • Transparency Suggestions

                      This project goes a long way in combating the argument against a scientific consensus, but I would like to make some feature suggestions that I think would help you in your goal. A major problem we've been seeing is that even though the science overwhelming agrees with one side, the public at large does not believe it because they believe those leading the research are not credible. Adding some features to increase the transparency of the research could help this. Here are my suggestions:

                      1. Require experts to list their primary sources of research funding and perhaps even make profiles…

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                      • Increases in methane concentrations appears to have stopped

                        Posted November 15, 2012 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

                        Increases in methane concentrations appears to have stopped even though methane emissions are increasing. There might be some unknown chemical pathway for degradation of methane in the atmosphere or we might be estimating emissions incorrectly.

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                        • Semantics of when Arctic Sea will be effectively ice free

                          Posted September 14, 2012 by Anonymous:

                          As nearly ice free conditions emerge, it will become a matter of semantics whether the Arctic ocean is totally ice free or not. I believe that if conditions are such that minimum ice extent consistently falls below 0.5m km2 then the ocean will be effectively ice free, with the residual ice "sheltered" by the Greenland land mass. I fear this will occur either late in this decade, or in the early 2020s.

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                          • Regarding "zero ice" qualifications and measurement method

                            Posted July 26, 2012 by Michael MacCracken:

                            On the present poll, saying zero ice area seemed to me a problem with the question as ice could hide out at foot of glaciers for a long time. I would have thought there would have been some qualification about ice that is, say, more than 10 km from land, so out free in the ocean. And I would note there are also some problems with the measurement method, which can’t see down to too fine a scale, does a floating ice berg count, etc. (which is why I felt I had to…

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                            • Regarding "completely free" Arctic ice

                              Posted July 26, 2012 by Mark Stewart:

                              Answers to the most recent poll question, "when will the Arctic ocean be completely free of ice" may be distorted by the stipulation of 'completely free'. While the entire Arctic Ocean may have an ice extent ("no ice" means less than 15% ice cover) of zero by the normal criteria, when 'completely free' will occur is very difficult to estimate, as there almost certainly will still be glaciers calving bergs into the Arctic Ocean even when the open ocean is nearly free of floating sea ice. I am puzzled why you choose that…

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                                We gave the “completely free” issue considerable thought prior to posting this poll question. Our intent was to pose a question whose answer would be vivid and comprehensible to a lay audience. This is why we chose the “completely free” wording rather than something like “nearly free” or less than a certain threshold. Having said that, given the concerns raised by you and others, we are seriously considering revisions to the question wording in subsequent rounds.

                              • Suggested questions: methane and black carbon

                                Posted July 26, 2012 by Michael MacCracken:

                                A possible question (or related set of questions): With ongoing emissions policies, what do you expect the methane concentration to be in 2100? With aggressive efforts to limit emissions of methane as one of the short-lived GHGs, what do you think the methane concentration could be in 2100 (including whatever government response that you think will be achieved)? Another question that might be of interest would relate to black carbon, both what its current contribution is and what it is likely to be.

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                                • Suggested question: sea level rise

                                  Posted July 26, 2012 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

                                  When will sea level have risen by 1 m?

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                                  • Commentary on Arctic sea ice

                                    Posted July 20, 2012 by Joseph D'Aleo:

                                    Arctic sea ice varies on a 60 year natural cycles related to multidecadal cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific. When both oceans are warm, more warm water enters the arctic and thins the ice. When both enter the cool phases, the ice thickens more and winter and melts less in summer. The Pacific has cooled since 2006 which explains the record Bering Sea and Straits and frigid Alaska temperatures. The Atlantic has several more years in its warm mode which began in 1988 but was interrupted by Pinatubo. We will play with low…

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                                      0 comments  ·  Other  ·  Admin →
                                    • Regarding "zero" coverage Arctic ice

                                      Posted July 20, 2012 by Anonymous Expert Participant:

                                      Assumed that "zero" coverage allows for some small pockets of ice remaining in the Canadian Archipelago - but an essentially ice-free Arctic Ocean.

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                                      • Regarding poll question: Arctic sea ice

                                        Posted July 19, 2012 by Alan Betts:

                                        The zero threshhold is too absolute. Just as pockets of snow survive on mountains thru the summer, patches of ice may be left when >95% of ice has gone. Question would be better with say When <5% of ice coverage left at end of summer melt season.

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                                        • Participants' discussion of Round 1 results on Skeptical Science

                                          Posted on 19 July 2012 by dana1981, with additional comments by other participants: http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1537

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