Propose questions for next Vision Prize poll

Please fill in the blank:

How likely is the following statement to be true? ________________________

Where the possible answers are: A) Very unlikely (<10%); B) Unlikely (<33%); C) About as likely as not (33-66%); D) Likely (>66%); E) Very likely (>90%).

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  1. "Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health."

    Prior version: "A set of indicators is needed to gauge human stresses on the climate that can be coupled to local information on what people care most about."

    Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

    7 votes
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    • 7 votes
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      • 2 votes
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        • The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system.

          The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system, which is stoking sea-level rise and other climate impacts.

          Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

          7 votes
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          • Ocean heat content is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

            Reframed: Ocean heat content is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

            Original (from Victor et.al.): Ocean heat content is a better proxy for long-term risk to future generations and planetary-scale ecology than average global temperature.

            Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

            7 votes
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            • Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs is a better indicator of climate change risk than average global temperature.

              Full Question: Concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (or the change in radiative forcing caused by those gases) is a better indicator of climate-change risk than average global temperature.

              Original (from Victor et.al.): Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs (or the change in radiative forcing caused by those gases) is the best indicator of climate-change risk

              Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

              7 votes
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              • The goal of stopping global warming at 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is effectively unachievable.

                Source: Victor, D. G. Global Warming Gridlock: Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011). http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018#/b4

                3 votes
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                • Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health.

                  Ditch the 2 C warming goal, say David G Victor and Charles F. Kennel in NATURE Vol 514 pp 30-3. Track a range of vital signs instead. http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                  3 votes
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                  • Getting global agreement at UNFCCC's Conference in Paris 2015 to combat current and future climate change is not essential.

                    Currently there is a heightened interest in climate change in the general public. The recent marches in a number of cities around the world confirmed this fact. However, our political class is still woefully inadequate in responding to the evolving crisis, and, in the US in particular, the heavy emphasis on electing once more an intransigent congress, including the senate, is very discouraging. Canada continues as a standout climate denier at the federal level.

                    1 vote
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                    • Primary school education is not adequately preparing a generation to face the climate change consequences of the coming decades.

                      Following the question concerning higher education, science education in primary school should also be addressed.

                      3 votes
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                      • 4 votes
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                        • Effective climate change action will be achieved through grassroots movements in developed economies.

                          A dominant theory of change is that grassroots movements can reduce aggregate human contributions of CO2 to Earth's atmosphere. I am curious about how broadly this idea is held and the confidence with which it is maintained.

                          1 vote
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                          • We will alter the radiative forcing of the climate system by over eight watts per meter squared by 2100.

                            We usually think of climate change in global average temperatures rising by a few degrees Celsius by 2100, but framing this in terms of how much we will alter the radiative forcing of the climate system-- from less than 3 watts per meter squared to more than 8 by 2100 and over 12 by 2200-- which current trends suggest is the direction we are going, adds another perspective to how human activities are altering the planet.

                            2 votes
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                            • 1 vote
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                              • Human societies will join together internationally to promote the socio-economic changes needed to stabilize the global human population.

                                Will human societies join together internationally to promote the socio-economic changes needed to stabilize the global human population?

                                2 votes
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                                • The costs to humanity of not soon reducing CO2 levels significantly (vs avg. projections) will be >> than trying to switch to alternatives.

                                  The costs to humanity of not soon reducing CO2 levels significantly (vs avg. projections) will ultimately (by end of this century) be much higher than trying to aggressively (at government and non-government levels) switch to alternative sources of cleaner energy.

                                  1 vote
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                                  • 4 votes
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                                    • Carbon pricing schemes for nations will significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

                                      Carbon pricing schemes for nations, where a price per ton of carbon is added to locally produced or imported goods, services, and transportation fuels, and dispersed back to the population on a per capita basis will significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

                                      4 votes
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                                      • Renewable energy will provide 100 percent of the United States' electricity before the end of this century.

                                        Renewable energy will provide 100 percent of the United State's electricity before the end of this century.

                                        2 votes
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                                        • Fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of our primary energy supply by 2050.

                                          At present, fossil fuels make up over 80% of the world's primary energy supply, and there is little sign of any change so far in this century. However, all manner of pundits have claimed it is essential for fossil fuel consumption to be cut to low levels to avoid catastrophic climate change. There seems to be a gap between these claims and the global reality. What do the experts feel?

                                          7 votes
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