Propose questions for next Vision Prize poll

Please fill in the blank:

How likely is the following statement to be true? ________________________

Where the possible answers are: A) Very unlikely (<10%); B) Unlikely (<33%); C) About as likely as not (33-66%); D) Likely (>66%); E) Very likely (>90%).

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  1. The 2 degree goal is nonsense

    Posted November 20, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

    The 2 degree goal is just nonsense - it is a political slogan, without any scientific meaning

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    • natural gas question was a bit ambiguous wrt timeframe

      Posted November 20, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

      the natural gas question was a bit ambiguous wrt timeframe. I assumed you meant medium to long...

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      • Ambiguous statement taken out of context

        Posted November 20, 2014 by Richard Tol:

        This was a stupid survey. Ambiguous statement taken out of context. Do you agree?

        //////// Moderator Note ////////

        Statement to which comment refers: "Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health."

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        • Should education, communication, and outreach be a high priority?

          Posted November 20, 2014 by Mark McCaffrey:

          Question- should education, communication, and outreach be a high priority in order to inform and engage citizenry to be able to make informed climate decisions?

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          • Time has run out -- we must prepare for a much warmer climate

            Posted November 20, 2014 by Dan Hrebenyk:

            I see no evidence that CO2 emissions will be reduced by 2030, and believe that the 2C goal for global average temperature will be exceeded. We have already run out of time for achieving that goal and must prepare for a much warmer climate in this century.

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            • Ideas for further planetary indicator questions

              Posted November 20, 2014 by Daniel Kirk-Davidoff:

              That was a pretty interesting set of questions. I think you could tease it out usefully to get more into the details of what people are thinking. *Why* would CO2 be a better indicator of planetary health than temperature? Is the point to include ocean acidification impacts? Or just to average out natural climate variability, and remove uncertainty about climate sensitivity from the policy discussion?

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              • You forgot the most important metric--total amount of fossil fuel CO2 emitted

                Posted November 20, 2014 by Mitch Lyle:

                You forgot the most important metric--total amount of fossil fuel CO2 emitted. To my mind, it is the best way to compare what fits with the stated goal and provides a way to divvy up whatever remaining emissions are allowed.

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                • Long range research in nuclear power generation is an urgent priority.

                  For many countries nuclear power is the only practical means of power
                  generation on the scale needed for modern industry aside from the use of fossil fuels. More research is needed to develope safe ways to deploy
                  this technology safely throughout the globe.

                  1 vote
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                  • Ambiguities make answering some questions hard

                    Posted October 30, 2014 by Michael MacCracken:

                    A number of the questions were not well defined or lacked indications of time period being considered or spatial region being considered, etc. For example, the first question asked about global average temperature as an indicator of the "health" of the planet--just what are we to take that to mean? Is it about the degree of climate change, the impacts on the environment, the health of people, the overall policy set of nations with respect to the environment, the international security situation, etc.? On the question on setting a concentration goal and specific…

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                    • 1 vote
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                      • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? Main danger is from abrupt climate change, which is impossible to guage

                        Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

                        The first question was confusing because it was a double negative. The main danger is from an abrupt climate change, which will come by definition without warning. Therefore it is impossible to gauge the health of the climate!

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                        • Keep Vision Prize independent

                          Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

                          I realize that now the Vision Prize collaborates with IOP and ERL, but the focus of recent questions on specific ERL papers (even if relevant) makes me wonder how independent the Vision Prize still is. Until now, I found it a refreshing venue for climate change science and policy polling among experts. I hope it stays that way.

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                          • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, at least GMT is simple, observable and relevant to where people are living

                            Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

                            The problem is not with the global mean temp (at meteo level) as a metric for the impact of global warming. It is known to be not very good, but none of the others is any much better: e.g., ocean heat content is not actually connected strongly with climatic impacts on the biosphere. And neither it nor GMT says anything re: ocean acidification. The whole argument in the article has the implicit premise that our failure to do something about global warming is to be blamed on scientists' failure to communicate…

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                            • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, very important not to downgrade limit agreed in Copenhagen

                              Posted October 28, 2014 by Harry McCaughey:

                              It is very important to not downgrade the importance of the 2 degree C limit agreed to in Copenhagen. Whereas there are a variety of other measures which are indicative of dangerous tipping points, the 2 degree C limit has more broad recognition to the vast majority of the public, and it is absolutely crucial that the world's public be on side with the needed changes in fossil fuel use.

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                              • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? Picking one indicator or other will not get us away from the complexities

                                Posted October 28, 2014 by Raghu Murtugudde:

                                Picking one indicator or the other will not get us away from the complexities of the issues. Both climate scientists and the politicians need to stay on the task till the needle moves on the behavioral changes needed in all - including, or especially those who like to march in New York City or wherever else expecting someone else to solve the problem. My views. http://www.livescience.com/48452-climate-fixes-need-realistic-compromises.html

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                                • RE Ditch 2°C warming goal? No, better than the alternatives

                                  Posted October 28, 2014 by an Anonymous Expert Participant:

                                  Like Democracy, use of avg. global temperature to measure climate change is better than the alternatives

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                                  • "Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health."

                                    Prior version: "A set of indicators is needed to gauge human stresses on the climate that can be coupled to local information on what people care most about."

                                    Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                                    10 votes
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                                    • 7 votes
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                                      • 2 votes
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                                        • The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system.

                                          The oceans are taking up over 90% of the extra energy being added by human stresses to the climate system, which is stoking sea-level rise and other climate impacts.

                                          Source: David G. Victor and Charles F. Kennel, "Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal," Nature, 01 October 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/climate-policy-ditch-the-2-c-warming-goal-1.16018

                                          7 votes
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